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Red75
159527.8
446926.2
189927.4
Blue128
366340.4
252142.8
49230.2
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions871175010015020075128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1595
#17
27.80.5
26.325.8
Auto3.6
Teleop21.2
End3.0
blue by 15.0
42.81.1
41.242.3
Auto13.2
Teleop26.5
End3.1
Second
1899
#13
27.40.5
30.429.9
Auto9.7
Teleop16.3
End1.4
blue by 13.0
3663
#21
40.41.1
33.534.6
Auto14.8
Teleop21.9
End3.7
Third
4469
#19
26.20.5
25.925.4
Auto7.0
Teleop14.5
End4.7
blue by 4.0
492
#26
30.21.1
27.528.5
Auto8.0
Teleop20.1
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
87%Melody oddsEarned98%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
32%Ensemble oddsMissed31%Ensemble oddsEarned