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Red76
760523.2
494722.2
543921.4
Blue15
354417.0
65401.2
355010.9
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54350204060801007615

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.23.3
15.919.1
Auto11.8
Teleop9.3
End2.1
red by 6.3
17.02.1
14.512.5
Auto7.6
Teleop8.1
End1.3
Second
22.23.3
15.819.1
Auto9.9
Teleop10.4
End1.9
red by 11.3
3550
#20
10.92.1
12.210.1
Auto4.2
Teleop6.2
End0.5
Third
21.43.3
14.818.1
Auto9.8
Teleop8.8
End2.8
red by 20.2
6540
#40
1.22.1
6.94.9
Auto0.6
Teleop0.0
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsEarned19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
13%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed