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Red54
552819.2
336013.9
494722.2
Blue21
910211.2
355010.9
68729.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions393925303545505421

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.22.1
11.013.0
Auto9.9
Teleop10.4
End1.9
red by 11.0
9102
#33
11.21.6
12.010.5
Auto5.2
Teleop4.8
End1.2
Second
19.22.1
12.314.3
Auto10.0
Teleop7.4
End1.8
red by 8.3
3550
#20
10.91.6
13.912.3
Auto4.2
Teleop6.2
End0.5
Third
13.92.1
12.314.4
Auto5.5
Teleop7.1
End1.3
red by 4.9
6872
#39
9.01.6
9.17.6
Auto2.8
Teleop5.8
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsEarned21%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed