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Red89
281517.9
349015.8
445136.9
Blue7
886612.9
99991.1
94774.8
87%Model gave it13%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74280204060100120140160897

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.91.1
34.435.5
Auto14.7
Teleop20.2
End2.0
red by 24.1
12.90.8
12.411.6
Auto4.8
Teleop7.3
End0.7
Second
17.91.1
14.315.4
Auto10.8
Teleop5.4
End1.6
red by 13.1
9477
#25
4.80.8
4.33.5
Auto2.8
Teleop0.8
End1.1
Third
15.81.1
13.614.7
Auto7.2
Teleop8.0
End0.6
red by 14.7
9999
#12
1.11.3
2.51.1
Auto2.7
Teleop-1.7
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
49%Melody oddsEarned5%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed25%Ensemble oddsMissed