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Red43
95475.7
805424.5
87957.3
Blue23
94977.0
566512.6
87995.7
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions323310204050604323

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.50.8
16.417.2
Auto11.2
Teleop11.7
End1.6
red by 12.0
5665
#19
12.60.4
9.79.3
Auto3.4
Teleop8.4
End0.9
Second
8795
#16
7.30.8
10.611.4
Auto4.8
Teleop1.6
End0.9
red by 0.3
9497
#51
7.00.4
5.85.4
Auto3.1
Teleop3.6
End0.4
Third
9547
#13
5.70.5
5.05.4
Auto2.9
Teleop2.1
End0.7
Level
8799
#45
5.70.4
11.110.7
Auto2.9
Teleop1.8
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
30%Melody oddsMissed16%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed