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Red39
82096.9
805610.8
805810.8
Blue41
566512.6
64315.7
902415.2
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2834102040503941

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8056
#28
10.81.0
8.99.9
Auto3.3
Teleop6.4
End1.1
blue by 4.4
9024
#15
15.20.1
14.514.6
Auto6.2
Teleop7.9
End1.1
Second
8058
#18
10.81.0
6.87.8
Auto4.3
Teleop5.8
End0.7
blue by 1.8
5665
#19
12.60.1
10.310.4
Auto3.4
Teleop8.4
End0.9
Third
8209
#43
6.91.0
10.311.3
Auto3.3
Teleop3.0
End0.6
red by 1.2
6431
#35
5.70.1
5.15.2
Auto2.8
Teleop2.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
15%Melody oddsMissed9%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed