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Red46
83693.1
913623.8
415314.6
Blue20
91372.8
473412.1
852813.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions423001020506070804620

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.80.6
21.422.1
Auto6.5
Teleop15.2
End2.1
red by 10.6
8528
#18
13.20.6
13.012.4
Auto8.0
Teleop3.9
End1.3
Second
4153
#11
14.60.6
13.514.1
Auto4.2
Teleop9.9
End0.6
red by 2.5
4734
#19
12.10.6
9.99.3
Auto4.5
Teleop7.1
End0.5
Third
8369
#38
3.10.6
1.42.1
Auto2.1
Teleop0.3
End0.6
red by 0.3
9137
#32
2.80.6
5.65.1
Auto0.6
Teleop1.3
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsMissed15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
22%Ensemble oddsMissed3%Ensemble oddsMissed