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Red65
541426.7
85079.7
96644.8
Blue26
45977.4
941815.3
50528.0
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions34331020304050606526

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.72.7
17.320.0
Auto8.1
Teleop17.6
End1.0
red by 11.4
15.31.0
13.212.2
Auto5.0
Teleop8.5
End1.9
Second
9.72.7
7.910.7
Auto4.2
Teleop4.9
End0.6
red by 1.7
5052
#29
8.01.0
8.17.1
Auto2.8
Teleop4.2
End1.0
Third
9664
#39
4.82.7
5.48.1
Auto1.4
Teleop3.3
End0.1
blue by 2.6
4597
#23
7.41.0
8.77.7
Auto1.5
Teleop5.3
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsMissed10%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed