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Red40
58945.3
41821.5
86105.2
Blue59
550310.9
356115.8
801915.2
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions27350102030405060704059

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
418
#3
21.51.6
16.017.6
Auto11.4
Teleop8.9
End1.3
red by 5.7
3561
#17
15.81.8
10.212.0
Auto8.0
Teleop6.2
End1.7
Second
5894
#40
5.31.6
6.78.4
Auto2.3
Teleop1.3
End1.7
blue by 9.9
15.21.8
12.314.1
Auto6.5
Teleop7.7
End1.0
Third
8610
#42
5.21.6
2.54.2
Auto2.1
Teleop2.1
End1.0
blue by 5.7
5503
#18
10.91.1
8.59.6
Auto4.4
Teleop4.7
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
8%Melody oddsMissed9%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
5%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed