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Red100
636926.5
542726.4
712122.8
Blue63
268919.7
541432.3
71156.7
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions726320408010012010063

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6369
#11
26.52.1
20.922.9
Auto8.6
Teleop17.6
End0.3
blue by 5.8
5414
#17
32.30.9
36.035.1
Auto8.0
Teleop23.4
End0.9
Second
26.42.1
23.625.6
Auto11.6
Teleop12.8
End2.0
red by 6.7
2689
#23
19.70.9
14.713.7
Auto8.0
Teleop11.0
End0.7
Third
7121
#19
22.82.1
19.721.8
Auto7.9
Teleop12.7
End2.2
red by 16.1
7115
#40
6.70.9
7.46.4
Auto3.6
Teleop2.8
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
46%Melody oddsEarned53%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed20%Ensemble oddsEarned