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Red98
636926.5
420635.5
521213.2
Blue64
951214.7
543127.5
284821.5
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions726602040801001201401609864

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.51.1
31.432.4
Auto11.2
Teleop21.2
End3.1
red by 8.0
27.50.3
22.823.1
Auto7.4
Teleop18.2
End1.9
Second
6369
#11
26.51.1
21.622.7
Auto8.6
Teleop17.6
End0.3
red by 5.0
2848
#33
21.50.3
21.121.3
Auto7.9
Teleop12.9
End0.8
Third
5212
#31
13.21.1
11.712.8
Auto4.6
Teleop7.3
End1.3
blue by 1.4
9512
#41
14.70.3
16.316.5
Auto6.5
Teleop8.0
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
60%Melody oddsEarned54%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed5%Ensemble oddsMissed