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Red50
45056.4
53915.9
409917.0
Blue44
210612.8
29987.9
219916.0
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3838253035404550555044

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
17.01.3
15.416.7
Auto6.8
Teleop9.4
End0.8
red by 1.1
2199
#18
16.00.2
16.016.2
Auto5.9
Teleop9.1
End1.0
Second
539
#9
15.91.3
13.915.2
Auto5.8
Teleop7.7
End2.4
red by 3.1
2106
#14
12.80.2
11.111.3
Auto2.8
Teleop9.6
End0.4
Third
4505
#21
6.41.3
5.26.4
Auto4.8
Teleop1.2
End0.4
blue by 1.5
2998
#24
7.90.2
7.17.4
Auto3.1
Teleop4.5
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
6%Melody oddsEarned19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed