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Red70
40125.3
949630.2
61944.9
Blue37
17937.6
457512.1
90039.6
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions51250204060807037

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.22.4
20.322.7
Auto14.0
Teleop15.3
End0.9
red by 18.1
4575
#11
12.10.7
10.110.7
Auto6.4
Teleop5.2
End0.5
Second
401
#9
25.32.4
18.721.1
Auto13.3
Teleop10.0
End2.0
red by 15.7
9003
#24
9.60.7
8.39.0
Auto4.0
Teleop3.5
End2.2
Third
6194
#16
4.92.4
4.36.7
Auto2.1
Teleop2.3
End0.5
blue by 2.7
1793
#18
7.60.7
7.58.1
Auto2.7
Teleop4.5
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsEarned6%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed