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Red41
99757.3
572419.9
393920.8
Blue0
99967.3
314018.8
99767.3
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions58330100150200250300410

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3939
Unranked
20.80.0
20.820.8
Auto9.0
Teleop9.7
End2.1
red by 2.0
3140
Unranked
18.80.0
18.818.8
Auto4.5
Teleop13.2
End1.0
Second
5724
Unranked
19.90.0
19.919.9
Auto6.6
Teleop10.8
End2.5
red by 12.6
9976
Unranked
7.30.0
7.37.3
Auto2.6
Teleop3.7
End0.5
Third
9975
Unranked
7.30.0
7.37.3
Auto2.6
Teleop3.7
End0.5
Level
9996
Unranked
7.30.0
7.37.3
Auto2.6
Teleop3.7
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
44%Melody odds22%Melody odds
Ensemble
19%Ensemble odds5%Ensemble odds