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Red56
68827.7
313628.6
108619.9
Blue54
970918.0
6177.1
393917.3
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50422060801005654

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.60.8
20.421.2
Auto9.8
Teleop16.2
End2.5
red by 10.6
9709
#12
18.00.7
15.516.2
Auto10.5
Teleop5.3
End2.2
Second
1086
#13
19.90.8
19.520.3
Auto4.8
Teleop13.4
End1.8
red by 2.6
17.30.7
17.117.8
Auto7.6
Teleop7.6
End2.0
Third
6882
#20
7.70.8
4.04.8
Auto4.0
Teleop2.7
End0.9
red by 0.6
617
#18
7.10.7
6.06.7
Auto1.8
Teleop4.7
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
30%Melody oddsEarned10%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
19%Ensemble oddsMissed17%Ensemble oddsMissed