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Red41
34626.5
68822.6
61913.9
Blue65
554914.5
19159.7
42226.6
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions29460102040506070804165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
346
#3
26.51.4
14.415.8
Auto10.6
Teleop11.5
End4.4
blue by 0.1
422
#1
26.61.1
18.619.7
Auto9.1
Teleop16.5
End1.0
Second
619
#9
13.91.4
9.911.2
Auto5.6
Teleop7.4
End0.9
blue by 0.6
14.51.8
10.712.5
Auto5.1
Teleop8.1
End1.3
Third
6882
#23
2.61.4
4.35.7
Auto2.9
Teleop-0.8
End0.5
blue by 7.1
1915
#14
9.71.8
9.911.7
Auto3.4
Teleop6.5
End-0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsMissed17%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed13%Ensemble oddsEarned