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Red40
99993.8
592011.6
177828.5
Blue55
129418.3
99946.8
131837.2
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions73840501001502002503003504055

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1778
#21
28.51.4
43.041.6
Auto8.6
Teleop16.7
End3.2
blue by 8.7
37.21.2
38.637.4
Auto11.9
Teleop20.2
End5.1
Second
5920
#27
11.61.4
11.29.7
Auto5.4
Teleop4.6
End1.7
blue by 6.6
1294
#29
18.31.2
28.327.1
Auto8.0
Teleop9.7
End0.6
Third
9999
#32
3.82.4
7.24.8
Auto2.0
Teleop2.0
End-0.1
blue by 3.0
9994
#23
6.82.0
6.34.3
Auto5.4
Teleop1.4
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
58%Melody oddsMissed78%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
36%Ensemble oddsMissed46%Ensemble oddsMissed