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Red86
255723.3
131837.2
241217.8
Blue45
212226.2
321823.4
189920.5
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9910050607080901101208645

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.20.4
39.138.6
Auto11.9
Teleop20.2
End5.1
red by 11.0
2122
#16
26.23.0
38.135.1
Auto9.2
Teleop14.4
End2.7
Second
23.30.4
29.128.7
Auto10.1
Teleop11.0
End2.1
blue by 0.2
23.43.0
25.222.2
Auto8.3
Teleop14.1
End1.0
Third
2412
#24
17.80.4
22.021.6
Auto7.8
Teleop9.5
End0.5
blue by 2.7
20.53.0
26.723.7
Auto9.7
Teleop9.9
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
84%Melody oddsEarned81%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
57%Ensemble oddsEarned68%Ensemble oddsMissed