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Red48
445019.2
35884.9
298018.1
Blue46
413115.7
491511.5
417310.0
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions383820304050604846

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.21.5
14.015.5
Auto6.3
Teleop11.7
End1.2
red by 3.5
4131
#15
15.70.2
10.911.1
Auto6.9
Teleop7.5
End1.3
Second
18.11.5
13.214.7
Auto5.8
Teleop10.0
End2.4
red by 6.6
4915
#30
11.50.2
10.710.9
Auto2.8
Teleop7.1
End1.6
Third
3588
#25
4.91.5
7.38.8
Auto1.5
Teleop2.0
End1.4
blue by 5.1
4173
#22
10.00.2
12.312.5
Auto2.8
Teleop6.7
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
24%Melody oddsEarned26%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed