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Red70
292622.8
451317.2
96139.4
Blue41
412520.7
387613.3
634314.5
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions505402040801001201407041

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.81.6
19.421.0
Auto12.9
Teleop9.3
End0.6
red by 2.1
4125
#14
20.70.5
23.723.2
Auto7.2
Teleop13.2
End0.3
Second
17.21.6
17.519.1
Auto6.6
Teleop8.7
End1.9
red by 2.7
6343
#17
14.50.5
14.313.8
Auto3.8
Teleop8.9
End1.8
Third
9613
#20
9.41.6
8.810.4
Auto4.8
Teleop4.0
End0.6
blue by 3.9
3876
#28
13.30.5
10.810.2
Auto6.5
Teleop5.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
32%Melody oddsEarned66%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed16%Ensemble oddsMissed