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Red59
957621.3
206219.5
999616.5
Blue70
874426.1
582618.0
99946.8
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5150354045556065705970

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.30.8
21.322.1
Auto11.3
Teleop9.4
End0.6
blue by 4.8
26.11.2
24.125.3
Auto8.5
Teleop16.2
End1.3
Second
19.50.8
17.518.3
Auto6.0
Teleop12.8
End0.7
red by 1.5
18.01.2
13.214.4
Auto6.5
Teleop10.3
End1.1
Third
16.51.3
8.49.7
Auto6.3
Teleop8.2
End2.0
red by 9.6
9994
#10
6.82.0
5.07.0
Auto3.7
Teleop2.3
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
23%Melody oddsEarned51%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed