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Red45
80248.9
853113.2
52526.9
Blue64
558617.1
616619.6
702132.4
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions39491020306070804564

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
525
#15
26.90.8
19.820.6
Auto12.5
Teleop13.1
End1.3
blue by 5.4
32.41.9
20.222.1
Auto12.5
Teleop15.7
End4.1
Second
8531
#38
13.20.7
10.911.6
Auto4.1
Teleop7.2
End1.8
blue by 6.4
19.62.3
10.612.9
Auto9.4
Teleop8.0
End2.2
Third
8024
#44
8.90.7
5.46.0
Auto3.1
Teleop3.0
End2.8
blue by 8.2
5586
#29
17.11.7
12.113.8
Auto4.0
Teleop12.9
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
33%Melody oddsMissed57%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
13%Ensemble oddsMissed18%Ensemble oddsMissed