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Red46
250616.6
809616.9
35969.8
Blue55
36927.4
622323.5
638122.5
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions435102060804655

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8096
#34
16.90.5
13.313.7
Auto9.8
Teleop4.9
End2.2
blue by 6.6
23.50.8
11.812.6
Auto11.2
Teleop9.8
End2.5
Second
2506
#42
16.60.7
14.715.4
Auto7.6
Teleop6.9
End2.1
blue by 5.9
22.50.6
21.822.4
Auto5.9
Teleop14.5
End2.0
Third
3596
#40
9.80.7
11.712.4
Auto4.1
Teleop5.1
End0.7
red by 2.5
3692
#46
7.40.8
11.912.7
Auto3.8
Teleop2.9
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
27%Melody oddsMissed30%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed