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Red69
638122.5
319721.4
809616.9
Blue75
657413.6
219427.8
953523.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions666940506080901006975

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.50.2
22.322.5
Auto5.9
Teleop14.5
End2.0
blue by 5.4
2194
#13
27.80.3
26.827.1
Auto9.5
Teleop16.2
End2.1
Second
3197
#18
21.40.2
21.221.4
Auto6.9
Teleop11.8
End2.7
blue by 2.5
23.80.3
22.823.1
Auto7.2
Teleop14.5
End2.2
Third
8096
#34
16.90.2
16.716.9
Auto9.8
Teleop4.9
End2.2
red by 3.4
6574
#16
13.60.3
12.713.0
Auto3.9
Teleop8.9
End0.8