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Red22
453715.7
56484.8
643414.4
Blue65
558427.4
99924.2
91469.8
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3837203050602265

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
15.70.9
16.916.0
Auto5.1
Teleop9.9
End0.7
blue by 11.7
27.40.5
24.525.0
Auto11.6
Teleop13.7
End2.1
Second
14.40.9
14.513.5
Auto6.0
Teleop6.3
End2.2
red by 4.6
9.80.5
10.110.6
Auto4.5
Teleop4.0
End1.3
Third
5648
#18
4.80.9
4.63.7
Auto3.0
Teleop0.3
End1.5
red by 0.6
9992
#15
4.20.9
2.73.5
Auto2.1
Teleop1.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
15%Melody oddsMissed13%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed20%Ensemble oddsMissed