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Red109
53818.0
77257.8
402064.6
Blue43
86246.7
959013.4
314025.7
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8460204010012014010943

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+54Teleop
+66Endgame
+66Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
3Leave6
6Coral scored#0
28Coral points0
31Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +29
13Coral scored#6
46Coral points21
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
64Total teleop35
Reef
9L4#2
5L3#2
2L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +66
0Foul points0
109Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.63.5
40.744.1
Auto18.3
Teleop38.4
End7.9
red by 39.0
3140
#22
25.72.0
24.922.9
Auto2.1
Teleop22.3
End1.3
Second
538
#31
18.03.5
21.124.5
Auto4.7
Teleop10.7
End2.6
red by 4.6
9590
#42
13.42.0
16.114.1
Auto0.6
Teleop10.8
End2.1
Third
7725
#39
7.82.1
10.212.3
Auto5.1
Teleop3.8
End-1.1
red by 1.1
8624
#43
6.72.0
14.712.7
Auto1.4
Teleop2.1
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsMissed19%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsMissed