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Red69
877219.1
313811.7
103825.2
Blue33
460113.6
630218.5
1001120.4
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions73520204060801001206933

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+10Teleop
+10Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +7
6Coral scored#5
22Coral points19
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
0Processor points0
8Net points4
8Algae points4
30Total teleop23
Reef
2L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
26Foul points0
69Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.23.5
25.421.9
Auto6.2
Teleop16.6
End2.4
red by 4.8
20.41.9
10.78.8
Auto5.4
Teleop13.3
End1.7
Second
8772
#18
19.13.5
23.119.6
Auto4.4
Teleop11.7
End3.0
red by 0.6
6302
#25
18.51.9
20.818.9
Auto4.6
Teleop12.1
End1.7
Third
3138
#23
11.73.5
13.910.4
Auto3.1
Teleop7.3
End1.2
blue by 2.0
4601
#40
13.61.9
15.513.6
Auto2.5
Teleop8.8
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed