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Red259
804479.2
394080.1
2481103.1
Blue255
439185.6
223184.9
233885.2
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions270270255260265275280259255

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
Teleop+10
+10Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousBlue +2
0Leave3
11Coral scored#11
56Coral points55
56Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +8
25Coral scored#38
91Coral points137
6Processor algae#3
10Net algae#5
36Processor points18
40Net points20
76Algae points38
167Total teleop175
Reef
10L4#20
9L3#12
12L2#8
5L1 · trough#9
52Game pieces#57
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points6
259Total score255

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
103.10.1
102.9102.8
Auto25.7
Teleop65.5
End11.8
red by 17.4
85.60.2
86.286.0
Auto16.5
Teleop59.2
End9.9
Second
3940
#30
80.10.1
79.979.8
Auto18.7
Teleop52.0
End9.4
blue by 5.1
2338
#13
85.20.2
85.885.6
Auto24.7
Teleop49.9
End10.6
Third
79.20.1
79.079.0
Auto15.8
Teleop54.5
End9.0
blue by 5.7
2231
#46
84.90.2
85.485.3
Auto19.2
Teleop56.2
End9.4