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Red273
804479.2
394080.1
2481103.1
Blue242
439185.6
223184.9
233885.2
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions269269220240260280300320273242

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
+23Teleop
+33Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousBlue +5
9Leave3
9Coral scored#11
44Coral points55
53Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +28
39Coral scored#32
142Coral points116
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#7
18Processor points12
24Net points28
42Algae points40
184Total teleop156
Reef
17L4#18
13L3#9
11L2#9
7L1 · trough#7
57Game pieces#52
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +31
0Foul points2
273Total score242

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
103.10.3
102.8103.1
Auto25.7
Teleop65.5
End11.8
red by 17.4
85.60.4
86.085.6
Auto16.5
Teleop59.2
End9.9
Second
3940
#30
80.10.3
79.880.1
Auto18.7
Teleop52.0
End9.4
blue by 5.1
2338
#13
85.20.4
85.685.2
Auto24.7
Teleop49.9
End10.6
Third
79.20.3
79.079.2
Auto15.8
Teleop54.5
End9.0
blue by 5.7
2231
#46
84.90.4
85.384.9
Auto19.2
Teleop56.2
End9.4