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Red154
293549.1
107662.7
945937.6
Blue131
59736.3
912643.9
427077.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169167140150160180190200210154131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+3Teleop
+15Endgame
+23Fouls
Autonomouslevel
9Leave3
3Coral scored#4
14Coral points20
23Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +3
21Coral scored#16
77Coral points56
3Processor algae#4
3Net algae#6
18Processor points24
12Net points24
30Algae points48
107Total teleop104
Reef
11L4#8
4L3#5
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
8Foul points0
154Total score131

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1076
#28
62.71.5
64.963.4
Auto15.3
Teleop45.0
End2.4
blue by 14.4
4270
#52
77.21.9
79.577.5
Auto15.5
Teleop53.0
End8.7
Second
2935
#66
49.11.5
58.657.1
Auto10.3
Teleop34.6
End4.2
red by 5.3
9126
#64
43.91.9
43.441.5
Auto11.0
Teleop30.5
End2.4
Third
9459
#53
37.61.5
36.134.7
Auto9.1
Teleop25.4
End3.1
red by 1.3
597
#75
36.31.9
29.027.1
Auto7.2
Teleop26.5
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
39%Coral oddsMissed33%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed