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Red183
551656.9
293549.1
223184.9
Blue205
170180.3
414632.3
172762.4
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions202173100150250300183205

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+10
Endgame+22
Fouls+22
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
9Coral scored#6
44Coral points28
44Total auto34
TeleoperatedBlue +20
23Coral scored#26
83Coral points93
3Processor algae#6
6Net algae#4
18Processor points36
24Net points16
42Algae points52
125Total teleop145
Reef
15L4#10
7L3#8
7L2#8
3L1 · trough#6
41Game pieces#42
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +22
0Foul points0
183Total score205

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2231
#46
84.91.3
84.883.5
Auto19.2
Teleop56.2
End9.4
red by 4.6
1701
#35
80.32.1
73.475.5
Auto21.3
Teleop50.6
End8.4
Second
5516
#32
56.91.3
50.649.4
Auto17.2
Teleop34.7
End5.0
blue by 5.4
1727
#21
62.42.1
56.959.0
Auto8.9
Teleop41.1
End12.3
Third
2935
#66
49.11.3
55.854.5
Auto10.3
Teleop34.6
End4.2
red by 16.9
4146
#59
32.32.1
31.934.0
Auto5.5
Teleop24.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsMissed80%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
73%Barge oddsMissed78%Barge oddsEarned