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Red172
362069.4
634059.7
601423.0
Blue194
635848.9
173281.7
293549.1
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions161198100250300172194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+30
Endgame+20
Fouls+22
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
5Coral scored#8
27Coral points40
33Total auto40
TeleoperatedBlue +23
23Coral scored#29
81Coral points104
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#6
18Processor points18
24Net points24
42Algae points42
123Total teleop146
Reef
11L4#14
6L3#9
6L2#8
5L1 · trough#6
37Game pieces#46
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +22
0Foul points2
172Total score194

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3620
#49
69.40.8
69.270.1
Auto22.2
Teleop38.7
End8.5
blue by 12.3
1732
#23
81.70.1
79.779.8
Auto16.2
Teleop53.8
End11.7
Second
6340
#25
59.70.8
56.457.2
Auto10.9
Teleop39.4
End9.4
red by 10.6
2935
#66
49.10.1
54.554.6
Auto10.3
Teleop34.6
End4.2
Third
6014
#71
23.00.8
22.723.5
Auto4.0
Teleop16.3
End2.7
blue by 25.8
6358
#40
48.90.1
44.744.9
Auto8.5
Teleop37.7
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsEarned49%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsMissed