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Red149
529839.9
210665.8
945937.6
Blue133
595173.0
923433.7
348917.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143143110120130150160170180149133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+16Teleop
+16Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave0
7Coral scored#7
37Coral points33
37Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +12
19Coral scored#14
68Coral points50
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
12Processor points18
16Net points16
28Algae points34
96Total teleop84
Reef
8L4#6
10L3#6
5L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#28
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points0
149Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2106
#10
65.81.4
61.863.1
Auto17.8
Teleop39.1
End8.9
blue by 7.3
5951
#17
73.00.2
68.368.6
Auto19.2
Teleop44.0
End9.8
Second
5298
#33
39.91.4
34.335.7
Auto7.0
Teleop30.1
End2.8
red by 6.2
9234
#61
33.70.2
33.533.7
Auto7.4
Teleop23.2
End3.1
Third
9459
#53
37.61.4
32.533.8
Auto9.1
Teleop25.4
End3.1
red by 20.3
3489
#74
17.30.2
27.828.0
Auto2.7
Teleop13.4
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned