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Red223
595173.0
119788.8
111481.0
Blue174
233885.2
1012041.6
170180.3
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions237179150200250300223174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+33Teleop
+43Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
8Coral scored#9
38Coral points44
44Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +36
35Coral scored#18
127Coral points65
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#11
18Processor points12
12Net points44
30Algae points56
157Total teleop121
Reef
17L4#8
14L3#8
6L2#6
6L1 · trough#5
49Game pieces#40
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
6Foul points0
223Total score174

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88.81.6
82.681.0
Auto23.3
Teleop55.2
End10.3
red by 3.6
2338
#13
85.21.5
72.971.4
Auto24.7
Teleop49.9
End10.6
Second
81.01.6
82.280.6
Auto18.0
Teleop56.2
End6.8
red by 0.7
1701
#35
80.31.5
72.070.5
Auto21.3
Teleop50.6
End8.4
Third
5951
#17
73.01.6
64.963.3
Auto19.2
Teleop44.0
End9.8
red by 31.4
41.61.5
40.739.2
Auto6.3
Teleop31.2
End4.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
78%Coral oddsEarned64%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsMissed