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Red184
210665.8
439185.6
521669.9
Blue171
601423.0
263852.4
2481103.1
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions243183100150200300350184171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
Teleop+1
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
6Leave6
8Coral scored#8
41Coral points39
47Total auto45
TeleoperatedBlue +3
20Coral scored#23
73Coral points82
2Processor algae#3
8Net algae#5
12Processor points18
32Net points20
44Algae points38
117Total teleop120
Reef
9L4#13
10L3#7
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#6
38Game pieces#39
BargeRed +14
20Cage & park6
20Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
184Total score171

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85.62.5
83.881.3
Auto16.5
Teleop59.2
End9.9
blue by 17.4
103.10.3
98.297.9
Auto25.7
Teleop65.5
End11.8
Second
5216
#50
69.92.5
71.268.7
Auto17.7
Teleop48.6
End3.5
red by 17.5
2638
#68
52.40.3
51.150.8
Auto9.0
Teleop35.9
End7.5
Third
2106
#10
65.82.5
63.160.7
Auto17.8
Teleop39.1
End8.9
red by 42.8
6014
#71
23.00.3
23.523.2
Auto4.0
Teleop16.3
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
99%Coral oddsMissed52%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsMissed