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Red190
107662.7
634059.7
923433.7
Blue188
192365.5
388029.6
98783.6
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17119050100150250300350190188

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+4
Endgame+6
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave6
8Coral scored#6
41Coral points31
47Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +14
29Coral scored#31
103Coral points113
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
131Total teleop145
Reef
16L4#15
9L3#11
6L2#4
6L1 · trough#7
43Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
8Foul points0
190Total score188

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1076
#28
62.71.2
62.063.2
Auto15.3
Teleop45.0
End2.4
blue by 20.8
987
#14
83.60.6
77.277.9
Auto22.8
Teleop52.6
End8.2
Second
6340
#25
59.71.2
57.258.4
Auto10.9
Teleop39.4
End9.4
blue by 5.8
1923
#22
65.50.6
65.065.6
Auto17.8
Teleop45.9
End1.9
Third
9234
#61
33.71.2
33.734.9
Auto7.4
Teleop23.2
End3.1
red by 4.1
3880
#73
29.60.6
24.825.5
Auto5.3
Teleop24.3
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
59%Coral oddsMissed94%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
80%Barge oddsMissed80%Barge oddsMissed