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Red197
439.6
440077.9
957655.0
Blue187
285156.5
348917.3
173281.7
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions152172100120140160180200220240260197187

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+2Teleop
+12Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave9
8Coral scored#4
40Coral points18
40Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +11
24Coral scored#30
87Coral points108
2Processor algae#3
8Net algae#4
12Processor points18
32Net points16
44Algae points34
131Total teleop142
Reef
10L4#14
9L3#7
9L2#7
4L1 · trough#6
42Game pieces#41
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points2
197Total score187

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4400
#12
77.92.9
65.368.2
Auto19.8
Teleop49.4
End8.7
blue by 3.8
1732
#23
81.71.4
75.576.9
Auto16.2
Teleop53.8
End11.7
Second
9576
#36
55.02.9
47.450.3
Auto10.1
Teleop36.5
End8.4
blue by 1.5
2851
#60
56.51.4
50.852.2
Auto7.0
Teleop48.2
End1.3
Third
4
#62
39.62.9
29.632.5
Auto5.5
Teleop28.6
End5.5
red by 22.3
3489
#74
17.31.4
26.027.4
Auto2.7
Teleop13.4
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
40%Coral oddsEarned72%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned58%Barge oddsEarned