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Red53
393750.9
96089.5
907313.0
Blue117
203639.0
450040.6
543714.9
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8584506070809010011012053117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+52
Endgame+60
Fouls+64
AutonomousBlue +21
3Leave0
3Coral scored#7
13Coral points37
16Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +31
5Coral scored#14
19Coral points50
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
29Total teleop60
Reef
2L4#7
3L3#8
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#3
10Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +64
2Foul points6
53Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.92.4
52.550.1
Auto10.4
Teleop34.0
End6.5
red by 10.4
40.63.0
32.935.9
Auto11.3
Teleop23.6
End5.7
Second
9073
#15
13.02.4
14.912.5
Auto6.2
Teleop5.3
End1.4
blue by 26.1
2036
#10
39.03.0
29.632.7
Auto9.4
Teleop23.7
End5.9
Third
9608
#30
9.52.4
10.37.9
Auto1.3
Teleop6.4
End1.8
blue by 5.3
5437
#24
14.93.0
14.317.3
Auto5.3
Teleop8.8
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsMissed64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsMissed34%Barge oddsEarned