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Red100
239930.4
791726.1
642447.8
Blue118
1035821.2
1639.2
804454.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1071186080100140160100118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+28
Endgame+18
Fouls+18
AutonomousBlue +18
6Leave3
3Coral scored#7
13Coral points34
19Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +10
14Coral scored#11
49Coral points41
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#6
6Processor points12
12Net points24
18Algae points36
67Total teleop77
Reef
6L4#6
6L3#5
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
21Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
0Foul points0
100Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.80.6
47.246.6
Auto12.8
Teleop25.8
End9.3
blue by 6.7
54.50.4
50.350.7
Auto14.4
Teleop33.8
End6.3
Second
2399
#23
30.40.6
29.729.0
Auto4.6
Teleop21.4
End4.4
blue by 8.8
16
#8
39.20.4
35.335.7
Auto9.6
Teleop27.1
End2.5
Third
7917
#25
26.10.6
22.121.5
Auto6.6
Teleop14.5
End5.0
red by 5.0
21.20.4
19.519.9
Auto5.7
Teleop12.6
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed31%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsMissed