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Red150
543714.9
393750.9
642447.8
Blue124
203639.0
906729.9
178135.6
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1241116080100140160150124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+12Teleop
+32Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave9
3Coral scored#4
17Coral points21
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +16
21Coral scored#18
74Coral points64
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
98Total teleop82
Reef
8L4#9
8L3#4
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#26
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +26
0Foul points6
150Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.90.9
49.850.7
Auto10.4
Teleop34.0
End6.5
red by 11.9
2036
#10
39.00.4
38.238.6
Auto9.4
Teleop23.7
End5.9
Second
47.80.9
46.847.6
Auto12.8
Teleop25.8
End9.3
red by 12.3
1781
#22
35.60.4
34.835.1
Auto6.4
Teleop26.8
End2.3
Third
5437
#24
14.90.9
13.814.7
Auto5.3
Teleop8.8
End0.7
blue by 15.0
9067
#18
29.90.4
29.129.4
Auto6.2
Teleop22.5
End1.2