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Red120
643413.2
598533.3
558455.5
Blue50
998413.7
650817.9
998317.1
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10450015020012050

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+56Teleop
+76Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
0Leave3
8Coral scored#2
40Coral points12
40Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +31
9Coral scored#5
34Coral points19
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
12Processor points0
8Net points4
20Algae points4
54Total teleop23
Reef
5L4#3
6L3#2
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#8
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
0Foul points6
120Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.51.4
53.254.5
Auto16.7
Teleop32.3
End6.5
red by 37.5
6508
#30
17.90.4
17.817.3
Auto3.5
Teleop12.1
End2.3
Second
33.31.4
29.230.5
Auto13.2
Teleop14.7
End5.3
red by 16.3
9983
#22
17.10.7
12.211.4
Auto3.6
Teleop12.7
End1.0
Third
6434
#25
13.21.4
11.412.7
Auto3.1
Teleop5.9
End4.1
blue by 0.5
9984
#17
13.70.7
15.514.7
Auto5.9
Teleop6.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed