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Red56
533111.6
997311.2
650817.9
Blue41
649723.5
643413.2
99909.2
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions425301001505641

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+11Teleop
+13Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
2Coral scored#2
12Coral points12
12Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +14
6Coral scored#4
20Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
34Total teleop20
Reef
3L4#3
3L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
8Cage & park6
8Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +15
2Foul points0
56Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6508
#30
17.90.3
17.317.7
Auto3.5
Teleop12.1
End2.3
blue by 5.6
6497
#20
23.50.1
23.723.5
Auto6.5
Teleop12.4
End4.5
Second
5331
#18
11.60.3
11.011.4
Auto2.8
Teleop4.3
End4.5
blue by 1.6
6434
#25
13.20.1
13.313.2
Auto3.1
Teleop5.9
End4.1
Third
9973
#11
11.20.5
10.310.8
Auto2.9
Teleop8.2
End0.4
red by 2.0
9990
#10
9.20.2
9.49.2
Auto5.3
Teleop2.3
End1.7