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Red43
1055213.3
598520.9
1043710.5
Blue31
1031618.1
1013122.0
1035010.0
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions554902040801001201401604331

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+2
0Endgame0
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +5
3Coral scored#4
9Coral points14
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
13Total teleop18
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
12Foul points0
43Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5985
#27
20.92.0
21.119.1
Auto5.5
Teleop13.5
End2.0
blue by 1.0
22.01.6
19.517.8
Auto4.8
Teleop15.4
End1.8
Second
13.32.0
13.811.8
Auto4.3
Teleop7.7
End1.3
blue by 4.9
18.11.6
17.315.7
Auto2.4
Teleop14.5
End1.2
Third
10.52.0
14.212.2
Auto2.1
Teleop7.5
End0.8
red by 0.5
10.01.6
8.97.3
Auto3.1
Teleop4.5
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned19%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed