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Red58
1035010.0
649728.2
1050813.4
Blue21
643416.9
1013122.0
91449.3
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions514002060805821

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+17Teleop
+33Endgame
+37Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +17
5Coral scored#3
17Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
27Total teleop10
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#3
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
6Foul points2
58Total score21

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.20.7
23.624.2
Auto6.4
Teleop16.0
End5.8
red by 6.3
22.02.1
17.815.8
Auto4.8
Teleop15.4
End1.8
Second
13.40.7
15.215.9
Auto3.5
Teleop8.1
End1.8
blue by 3.5
6434
#24
16.92.1
15.012.9
Auto4.6
Teleop8.5
End3.9
Third
10.00.7
7.37.9
Auto3.1
Teleop4.5
End2.4
red by 0.7
9144
#36
9.32.1
4.82.8
Auto3.8
Teleop5.4
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsMissed23%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed