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Red40
587615.2
564810.4
1055213.3
Blue36
711312.3
650820.8
1034220.1
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions48592040801004036

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+4Teleop
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +1
4Coral scored#4
13Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
6Processor points0
0Net points4
6Algae points4
19Total teleop18
Reef
1L4#2
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
8Foul points8
40Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5876
#17
15.22.2
14.512.3
Auto3.6
Teleop5.1
End6.4
blue by 5.7
6508
#11
20.83.6
23.119.5
Auto4.0
Teleop13.7
End3.1
Second
13.32.2
16.214.0
Auto4.3
Teleop7.7
End1.3
blue by 6.9
20.13.6
16.212.6
Auto4.1
Teleop15.4
End0.7
Third
5648
#38
10.42.2
13.511.3
Auto1.7
Teleop6.5
End2.2
blue by 1.9
7113
#35
12.33.6
12.28.6
Auto4.2
Teleop6.7
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
26%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsEarned33%Barge oddsMissed