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Red77
478851.9
999712.5
997610.6
Blue28
99810.4
4788B19.2
99898.3
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions108400501502007728

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+19Auto
+47Teleop
+49Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +19
3Leave6
4Coral scored#0
22Coral points0
25Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +28
8Coral scored#4
28Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
46Total teleop18
Reef
5L4#1
2L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points0
77Total score28

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.90.0
55.555.5
Auto11.5
Teleop36.6
End3.8
red by 32.7
19.21.9
21.319.5
Auto4.4
Teleop12.6
End2.2
Second
9997
#10
12.50.0
10.610.5
Auto4.3
Teleop6.7
End1.5
red by 4.2
9989
#22
8.31.9
7.85.9
Auto2.2
Teleop4.8
End1.4
Third
9976
#18
10.60.0
3.33.3
Auto3.0
Teleop6.3
End1.3
red by 10.2
9981
#27
0.41.9
6.74.8
Auto0.2
Teleop-0.7
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed