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Red11
999116.6
943312.9
99850.5
Blue8
99759.9
999712.5
711312.9
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50270100150200118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+1Teleop
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
3Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +4
1Coral scored#0
4Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
4Total teleop0
Reef
1L4#1
0L3#0
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
1Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
11Total score8

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
16.62.3
6.94.6
Auto4.6
Teleop9.7
End2.3
red by 3.7
7113
#20
12.91.3
12.310.9
Auto4.1
Teleop7.2
End1.6
Second
9433
#13
12.92.3
17.915.6
Auto3.8
Teleop6.6
End2.5
red by 0.4
9997
#10
12.52.0
6.94.9
Auto4.3
Teleop6.7
End1.5
Third
9985
#28
0.52.3
6.94.6
Auto0.1
Teleop-0.8
End1.3
blue by 9.4
9975
#30
9.92.0
6.94.9
Auto2.8
Teleop6.1
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed