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Red90
919124.5
99938.3
999024.7
Blue79
1031613.2
997214.7
998015.3
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions645101001509079

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+17Teleop
+17Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +14
13Coral scored#11
48Coral points38
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
12Processor points12
12Net points8
24Algae points20
72Total teleop58
Reef
4L4#5
4L3#4
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#16
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points6
90Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9990
#12
24.70.7
23.123.8
Auto3.3
Teleop20.1
End1.3
red by 9.4
9980
#14
15.30.4
14.915.3
Auto3.5
Teleop9.7
End2.1
Second
24.50.7
22.923.6
Auto5.8
Teleop15.0
End3.8
red by 9.9
9972
#16
14.70.4
14.214.7
Auto3.6
Teleop9.3
End1.7
Third
9993
#23
8.30.8
6.67.3
Auto1.9
Teleop5.0
End1.3
blue by 4.9
13.20.4
12.913.2
Auto1.6
Teleop10.3
End1.4