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Red125
248640.6
237538.6
909111.9
Blue124
498B29.1
418328.7
101112.6
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11180050100150200125124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+13Teleop
+7Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave3
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +1
18Coral scored#23
64Coral points83
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
18Processor points12
20Net points8
38Algae points20
102Total teleop103
Reef
8L4#9
8L3#9
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points6
125Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.60.4
39.840.2
Auto13.8
Teleop22.6
End4.1
red by 11.5
498B
#14
29.10.7
28.429.1
Auto5.3
Teleop22.0
End1.8
Second
38.60.4
37.938.2
Auto10.7
Teleop26.2
End1.7
red by 9.9
28.70.7
28.128.7
Auto2.9
Teleop24.3
End1.5
Third
9091
#13
11.90.4
11.211.6
Auto1.9
Teleop10.1
End-0.0
blue by 0.7
12.60.7
11.912.6
Auto2.0
Teleop9.0
End1.7