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Red128
247839.4
414630.4
237541.6
Blue136
240356.8
116542.6
418327.8
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11413250100150200250128136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+6
Endgame+10
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +18
3Leave3
2Coral scored#5
9Coral points27
12Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +12
22Coral scored#22
78Coral points78
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
18Processor points6
16Net points16
34Algae points22
112Total teleop100
Reef
9L4#7
6L3#9
5L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
31Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Penalties & totalBlue +8
2Foul points0
128Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.60.1
41.441.6
Auto11.1
Teleop29.4
End1.0
blue by 15.2
56.80.2
56.656.8
Auto9.8
Teleop40.4
End6.7
Second
39.40.1
39.339.4
Auto6.3
Teleop31.0
End2.0
blue by 3.2
42.60.2
42.342.6
Auto9.9
Teleop32.2
End0.5
Third
4146
#16
30.40.1
30.330.4
Auto4.0
Teleop24.2
End2.2
red by 2.7
4183
#11
27.80.2
27.627.8
Auto2.6
Teleop22.9
End2.2